All hail the stumbling child-king

Israel, Ukraine, and the end of empire

Pascal is right on point.

The Israeli regime seems desperate. It has nothing to lose, and it’s pulling out all stops in an attempt to escalate and provoke a forceful retaliation that overshadows its own ongoing genocide.

The sneak-attack on Iran is really vile and irresponsible. It will be hard for the council and the assembly not to retaliate forcefully. This attack not only targets the critical nuclear infrastructure and the state’s capacity for long-term deterrence, it also adds insult to injury in outright murdering top state officials in their civilian residences.

You never attack the hierarchy like this, a mafia doesn’t come after the other family’s bosses, because that means nobody is safe anymore.

This is also what’s being communicated, in no uncertain terms, to the Iranian elite. They’re only human. And now they’re fully aware that each and every one of them and their immediate family is fair game in the eyes of the unhinged Israeli regime, whether or not they push the envelope and retaliate in kind.

Perhaps especially so if they fail to escalate, since this is what the Israelis desperately need.

Either they strike back at Israeli nuclear facilities or critical military infrastructure, so the Zionists can plausibly claim genocide throughout the Western propaganda apparatus and regain their institutional support and moral high ground — or the Iranian leadership and their families will get picked off, one by one.

It’s gotta be a really tough choice, and the US president’s blundering, moronic statement from a few hours ago doesn’t make things any easier.

“There has already been great death and destruction, but there is still time to make this slaughter, with the next already planned attacks being even more brutal, come to an end,” Trump posted on Truth Social.

“Iran must make a deal, before there is nothing left, and save what was once known as the Iranian Empire,” he continued. “No more death, no more destruction, JUST DO IT, BEFORE IT IS TOO LATE.”

“I told them it would be much worse than anything they know, anticipated, or were told, that the United States makes the best and most lethal military equipment anywhere in the World, BY FAR, and that Israel has a lot of it, with much more to come — And they know how to use it,” he continued.

The president added, “Certain Iranian hardliner’s spoke bravely, but they didn’t know what was about to happen. They are all DEAD now, and it will only get worse!”

The Hill.

These are the words of a child. If you thought Dubya sounded like a moron, this is just terrifying in its dead serious stupidity.

Iran is essentially being pushed into a corner, with the US president stopping just short of admitting culpability, and ending with a direct threat against the Iranian hierarchy.

I don’t know how they avoid a violent response in this situation, much less how Iran could “make a deal” and conceding defeat without losing their last shreds of deterrence credibility. They don’t just have Israel to worry about — they have Pakistan, they have the Kurdish militias, they have the Sunni insurgents, and they have recurrent political instability that could flare up violently at the first sign of real weakness or indecision on part of the administration.

So it’s not like they have any obvious options, and at this stage, there doesn’t seem to be any feasible middle ground either, like tossing a few missiles at some half-empty base in the middle of the desert in symbolic retaliation. They will now need to draw blood, the question is just how much.

The same pattern of desperation is evident in the actions of the Ukrainian regime, although with almost nothing to show for it in comparison. The Russians are striking back in force, and are now arguably galvanized by the Ukrainian attacks on civilian infrastructure and the large non-combatant death toll. These latter developments will help in the Russian polls, and will support their branding of the Ukrainian regime as totally illegitimate terrorists, but their attenuated yet measured response is unlikely to be met with further escalations from the West in the near-term. But as the Washington Post emphasizes, Ukraine’s “dirty war” is perhaps just beginning, and if they manage to mount a meaningful terror campaign with British and American fingerprints all over it, provocatively just beyond the realm of plausible deniability (or if they were to start assassinating the Russian higher-ups like Israel now does in Iran), Russia may well start crossing some lines.

There are also possible synergy effects here. Russia and Iran recently formalized their relations in a treaty on a “comprehensive strategic partnership”, and an outright war between Iran and Israel may now progressively increase tensions between the West and Russia — with regard to its deeper defense and counter-terrorism cooperation with Iran.

Maybe this is the idea here.

Also, if Iran were forced to block the Hormuz, China will feel massive pain. According to the CSIS, China imports up to 45% of its petroleum specifically through the Hormuz Strait, so a closure would literally collapse the Chinese economy, whereas the West is much less exposed to this particular route. The US has also just reinforced the northward export channels through Iraq, has more or less secured the infrastructure going through Syria, and is working intently towards reopening the Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline that has been closed since 2023 due to a conflict between the Kurdish regional government and the federal Iraqi one. The high-profile US efforts towards a reopening may well signal expectations of other export routes being strained in the near future.

So the Israeli attack on Iran could be considered the first steps in a serious pivot towards China. If you’re worried about losing Taiwan and want to undercut China’s operational capacity in and around the Pacific, there’s really no better way than to strangle the petroleum exports through the Hormuz Strait.

Friday, June 13. There was a change in the air tonight, seems like.

A shift, like how late summer subtly turns into early autumn, manifest through this slightly cold tint in the color of sunlight that wasn’t really there the day before.

All hail the stumbling child king
Coiling for the vanishing lights
Now stay with us as brothers
Through this darkest of nights
We used to love America

And I remember how you sang
And we all should sing again

Screw the rest
The West knows best