The proverbial shit is hitting the fan everywhere, all at once, it seems.
It’s hard to get a good overview of the geopolitical developments, but it’s safe to say that every aspect of this mess in some way is reflective of the dominant macro processes in play, most important of which arguably are the following:
the ongoing energy and resource crisis, especially the decline in petroleum energy output
the decline of US and Western imperial hegemony
the relative ascendancy of the BRICS and aligned powers
What we’re currently seeing is how these huge, tektonic processes are beginning to more intensely manifest as open political and military conflicts and disruptions in global financial markets and regional economies. These latter disruptions are due to stagnating real growth (which at its base is connected to energy and resource constraints), recently exemplified by global inflation and the still-ongoing 2023 banking crisis. This not least manifests as the current political disruptions, e.g. thefarmer protests all across Europe, and a structural backdrop of an almost ubiquitous turn towards hard right authoritarian isolationist parties.
Some people focus on the parallels to the prelude of World War I, and while those are indeed interesting, we’re probably entering wholly unchartered territory since the overall framework will be one of disruptive economic decline rather than the stable global growth of the early 1900s.
These last few weeks have showcased a number of really significant developments in many parts of the world, so let’s just line up a few of the more important ones.
Attack on US troops in Syria by Iranian proxies (allegedly)
As perhaps the top news item, there are reports of an attack on US troops in Syria (or possibly Jordan) by Iranian proxies, which threatens further escalation in the current Mid-East conflict. US hawks call for military action against Iran, and the Biden regime has promised some sort of decisive action, which even with the utmost caution will tip the scales towards further conflict.
It’s worth noting that Russia, Iran and Syria has just recently extended their security agreements with a focus on safeguarding Syrian oil resources, combatting proxy forces hostile to Syria, and maintaining the territorial integrity of the Syrian state.
Russia is also increasing air patrols on the Syrian-Israeli border.
In response to the attack on US troops, hawks are clamoring for an actual strike on Iran
This is of course a lot about posturing and domestic political opportunism, but the US faces a huge problem in terms of its reputation and international standing, not only due to the ongoing Israeli genocide in Gaza that increasingly looks like a strategic failure as well. Another major loss of face is due to the rag-tag Houthis, backed by Iran, having singled-handedly shut down one of the key sea route choke points for goods and petroleum (but they’re letting through neutral or aligned vessels, such as those of China and Russia). Iran picking off US troops in semi-illegally occupied parts of Syria adds insult to injury, and if the US/NATO gang doesn’t manage to save face here by some form of retaliation, it’s going to look weaker than at any other point of its history since it fully entered the international stage in the late 1800s. Opportunists will pounce.
On that note, Iran is further pushing the envelope by visibly executing alleged Israeli spies or Mossad operatives, possibly innocent Kurdish political prisoners. A young Swedish public servant was yesterday reported to face the death penalty on similar (and not very plausible) charges.
North Korea incidentally at this moment in time also has decided to put heavier pressure on South Korea with promises of rapid and decisive military responses to any “provocations”.
Increasing secessionist tendencies in the US over the migration situation
On top of this, the domestic situation in the US is deteriorating far more quickly than most of us would have guessed. There’s amazingly talk about actual civil war over the border control issues in Texas and the state’s standoff with the federal government, with Florida actually sending its troops to support Texas, Oklahoma having pledged its national guard, and 25 republican state governors having expressed support for Texas. There is also significant popular support:
While there are similarities to the 1850s and 1860s, an actual hot civil war is probably very far from a possible outcome in the near term. Secession is another issue entirely, and as the cost-benefit ratio worsens for minor polities of being under the sovereignty of entities such as the EU or the US federal government worsens, we are going to see these institutional structures splinter. Sooner or later.
China’s Evergrande, the real estate mega-giant was ordered to liquidate in a Hong Kong court yesterday
The other shoe finally dropped in terms of Evergrande, the debt-ridden Chinese real estate giant. This could be China’s Lehman Brothers-moment, dealing a huge blow to the country’s real estate market, potentially triggering a stock market panic sell in the days and weeks ahead. Bondholders and banks are naturally entangled in Evergrande’s massive debt, which may well bring us into the second chapter of the 2023 banking crisis.
Russia seems to be decisively gaining the upper hand in Ukraine, while the latter at the same times faces loss of support from the US, as well as a simultaneous demoralizing corruption scandal and embezzlement of military equipment and funds
The United States is out of money for Ukraine, unable to send the ammunition and missiles that the government in Kyiv needs to fend off Russia’s invasion.
With the aid caught up in domestic politics, the Biden administration on Tuesday came empty-handed for the first time as host of the monthly meeting of about 50 nations that coordinate support for Ukraine. The group was established by Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin in April 2022.
While waiting for Congress to approve more money for Ukraine’s fight, Washington will look to allies to keep bridging the gap.
“I urge this group to dig deep to provide Ukraine with more lifesaving ground-based air defense systems and interceptors,” Austin said in opening remarks broadcast from his home, where he is recuperating after prostate cancer surgery.
At this moment, Russian attrition of the Ukrainian forces continues unabated, and we should expect them to advance when Ukraine is deemed to have been sufficiently weakened by the economic damage and lack of support, after which a rapid end to the war could actually be in sight.
Major headway was made today when Russian forces captured a sizable amount of new territories around Tabaevka. Here’s a detailed analysis of all the advancements.
Rumors continue to swirl that Russia is building up troops on the border areas there as well, particularly given Ukraine’s various escalations in shelling Belgorod, shooting down Il-76s, etc. This has led to speculation that Russia is getting closer and closer to launching a large second front from the north.
A major wave of agriculture-related protests are sweeping across Europe
As of this writing, French farmers have cut off all entrances to Paris and basically shut down the entire city. The purpose is to protest fuel taxes, insufficient subsidies and the consequences of neoliberal policies for the agricultural sector. Similar protests are seen throughout much of Europe, in Germany, Romania, Poland, the Netherlands and Italy, with Spain and Portugal likely to join soon.
The protests align closely with the secessionist, isolationist and protectionist sentiment increasingly seen throughout the politics of the entire West, and have a background in the complex energy and resource crisis industrial civilization finds itself in. Increased prices for petroleum-based fertilizer, energy and feed are an inevitable consequence of the abating petroleum energy output, even if the pain can normally be offset somewhat through subsidies and other measures for spreading the costs more evenly. The “adjustment” of subsidies to combat climate change we’ve seen during latter years is also now coming home to roost.
The decline in rock phosphate reserves, critical for the production of fertilizer and the maintenance of global food producion, is also a relevant factor.
Neocolonial structures in Africa are crumbling
Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso are leaving the “economic cooperation union”, ECOWAS, in the wake of the organization threatening military intervention in Niger. ECOWAS is a complex chapter in and of itself, but one can briefly observe that this endeavour towards regional economic cooperation and interdepencence has been shot through by remaining colonial ties and power structures. Many West African leaders, groups and political parties are now contending that something entirely new ought to be erected in ECOWAS’ place, which also mirrors the protectionist sentiment picking up speed in the West.
Western voices propose immediate actions against an imminent Russian attack in the midst of the Israel-Gaza genocide and the US bombing Syria, Yemen and Iraq
Apart from the recent proclamations coordinated throughout various countries in Europe that citizens should expect an imminent Russian invasion (since Russia naturally desires to occupy and govern an overpopulated, deindustrializing Europe devoid of natural resources and production capacity), intense preparations are also allegedly being made on the European side to face a near-term assault by Russia.
NATO also now plans to hold the most extensive military exercises since the cold war, placing 90 000 troops right on the Russian border from May 2024 onwards
To be sure, the corner that we in the West have painted ourselves into is a worrisome one. With Iran strangling the Red Sea routes, it’s now also in a position to simultaneously close down the Strait of Hormuz in concert with a Russian strangling of the Black Sea - Mediterranean petroleum supply lines, just as Russia is also expanding the North Sea route as a complete workaround in the face of Western sanctions. With the West’s Nord Stream sabotage on top of all this, Russia and its supporters have essentially been given a simple switch pad for throwing the collective West into an unresolvable energy crisis, that intentionally or not would be the single most legitimate pretext for a large-scale military intervention on our part.
Whether you’re a hawk or a non-interventionist.
I sit in one of the dives
On Fifty-second Street
Uncertain and afraid
As the clever hopes expire
Of a low dishonest decade:
Waves of anger and fear
Circulate over the bright
And darkened lands of the earth,
Obsessing our private lives;
The unmentionable odour of death
Offends the September night.Auden, “September 1, 1939”
The US are in Syria illegally. They are not Syria's ally, Russia is.
But why isn't Russia kicking their ass out or calling it out at the UN? Even when Israel strikes Syria Russia acts docile...
It's such a stupid show going on. Probably to keep people in fear at the expense of those people there.
Auden. Nice!
Another Troy must rise and set
Another lineage feed the crow...
Thank you.