The headlines have already given us the gist of it.
Hamas (the governing auhtority of Gaza), and several other militant Palestinian organizations including the Palestinian Islamic Jihad and the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine, now also supported by the Lebanese Hezbollah, initiated an attack on Israeli territory on the 7th of October.
This situation is more significant than the many other skirmishes and limited conflicts we have seen in this region over many decades, since it marks the first time since 1948 that we see a direct military conflict on Israel’s de jure territory. So it’s the first example in 75 years of an incursion of regular military forces into Israel proper.
According to major news media, such as CNN and The Guardian, Palestinian forces broke through the fortified border enclosing the Gaza Strip during an intense rocket barrage, entering Israel at seven different points in what seems to be a well-organized, small-scale invasion mixing conventional warfare and fire support with covert and insurgency tactics.
Mahmoud Abbas, the president of The Palestinian Authority, i.e. the equivalent to the head of state of Palestine, is supporting the military incursions as a defensive measure against Israeli occupation.
Hezbollah is joining the conflict at this very moment, with artillery fire being exchanged between northern Israel and Lebanon, which incidentally also increases the odds for escalation.
NATO states and most of the West condemns the military incursion and refer to it as terrorism. Most polities call for de-escalation.
It’s impossible to say anything really meaningful about casualties this early in such a volatile situation, but so far, about 700 people are reported to have been killed, and a significant portion of these are civilians. This is a rather large number, and most of these are alleged to be Israelis.
This means that the Israeli casualties, after only one day of fighting, are already worse than anything since the 1948 Arab-Israeli War, and we should expect the response to be proportionate to this situation.
Background
The immediate background and causes of the incursion are relatively unclear. This is not to say that the more general and long-ranging framework of the conflict is unknown, or to affirm simplistic notions that the conflict is “unprovoked”.
2023 has already seen significant military and paramilitary conflict in this context, such as Israel’s July attack on the Jenin refugee camp and the notable clashes around the Al-Aqsa mosque in April, which prompted Palestinian militants to respond with minor rocket attacks.
The October incursion is by some said to be in response to specifically the Al-Aqsa events, with two prominent spokesmen for the Palestinian forces and political organizations citing them as the pretext for the current offensive.
However, the significant level of coordination and certain outside support implies that there are other interests and objectives involved as well.
We probably should be wary of rapid conclusions, however. NATO think-tanks are very quick to frame this as the well-coordinated effort of a powerful adversary, emphasizing that we’re only seeing the beginning of a long (and lucrative) conflict:
This is new. It is not the five-thousand-plus rockets that have already been fired from Gaza into Israel over the last twelve hours that’s shocking Israelis and the world. It’s the complexity of what was an extremely well-planned and well-prepared attack in which Hamas terrorists infiltrated Israel by land, by sea, and even by air (via paragliders); embarking on an unprovoked and indiscriminate killing spree of men, women, and children in their homes, on the streets, and even at a nature party in the desert. This was an intelligence failure; it could not be otherwise. It was a security failure, undermining what was thought to be an aggressive and successful layered approach toward Gaza by Israel. But the examination of intel and security failures, which will surely come first, has to take a back seat to the reality of a war that is almost certainly just starting.
What’s also peculiar is this “catastrophic failure” of Israeli intelligence that was immediately seen all over the Western headlines yesterday, and also echoed in the statement above. “It could not be otherwise.”
While such a failure is certainly possible, it’s somewhat strange given the significant capabilities of the Israeli security apparatus and its embedded coordination with the Five Eyes.
What’s also plausible is that the state allies of the Palestinian forces, such as Iran and Syria, are cashing in on the volatile geopolitical situation and the ostensible weakness of the West, both in terms of the economy and the rapidly deteriorating Ukraine war effort. Iran and Israel’s ongoing proxy conflict is inevitably a contributing factor here.
The Palestinian attack, as John Steppling remarked yesterday, is surely also supported with black market weapons sourced from the West’s arming of Ukraine, so we can make the parenthetical observation of how the destabilizing investments of Raytheon and Lockheed Martin seemingly will provide their stockholders with new sources of income even as the will to support the Ukraine war effort wanes.
Potential developments
Domestically, Israel is now likely to solidify its somewhat splintered political apparatus. A state of emergency has been declared, and Netanyahu has unambiguously stated that Israel is at war. All major opposition parties have expressed support for a temporary war-time coalition government, and the many controversies surrounding Netanyahu is certain to become irrelevant, overshadowed by the crisis.
Netanyahu, the hardline nationalist and supporter of the violent occupation, is now since 2022 on his sixth term as president, and only this last year has been the focus of much controversy. His administration has headed a significant authoritarian reform of the Israeli judicial system which according to critics undermines the separation of powers and prepares the ground for corruption. This has caused some of the most significant public protests in Israel’s modern history, which are still ongoing.
Expect this “problem” to be conclusively solved by the October attacks.
Netanyahu’s current administration has also backed the annexation and integration of nine formerly illegal (according to Israeli law and international agreements) settler communities in the occupied West Bank, condemned by Israeli peace organizations but hardly mentioned in the Western media. These annexations will now definitely not be contested further, and further illegal acquisitions of occupied territories are very likely.
On the international level, are there any reasons to expect an escalation into a wider conflict?
Right now, tens of thousands of Israeli reservists are being mobilized in preparation for an invasion of the Gaza Strip, and Netanyahu urges Israelis to prepare for a “long and difficult war” while pledging to raze parts of Gaza in retaliation.
This would certainly be a significant provocation in the eyes of many states and organizations in the wider Middle East, and function as a clear and unambiguous pretext for escalated hostilities against the Israeli polity.
The fact that Hezbollah is entering the conflict at the time of this writing also complicates the situation quite a bit, but Israel and Lebanon have historically been able to contain similar skirmishes relatively well.
And if Israel takes the stance that the conflict was instigated or initiated by Iran, this new cold war that we seem to find ourselves in could gain much clearer contours. Embargoes and sanctions would likely follow, with a significant impact on the energy markets in a situtation that’s already facing structural supply issues. These would likely benefit Russia, and bolster its role as a stable and cheap producer.
In the short-term, uncertainty is going to push oil prices a good bit upwards, possibly touching the psychologically important $100 mark. This is not a good thing in relation to rampant inflation.
Finally, the flags on our Facebook profiles will unfortunately also return if this goes on for any length of time.
Zelensky is now in the media calling for solidarity with Israel and condemning the “terrorist attacks”, and just like with the Ukraine war, emotions are going to run very high. The oppressive demands to express support for one or the other side in yet another divisive and highly-publicized conflict are probably coming back.
Thanks Johan. This attack is far too convenient for Netanyahu and wipes his issues clean off the slate, which is why I smell a rat. Given the shady and covert history of Mossad I can't help but entertain its involvement to expand the Zionist power base and solve the 'Palestinian Problem'. The probability of Palestine using American-made arms from the Ukraine black market is beyond irony.
Thank you for this, Johan. It's difficult not to be a bit exhilarated by the Palestinian resistance but the reality is always murkier. With Netanyahu's CIA history (and current operative status?), the coming days will be perilous.